Are we growing with our economy or not?

From 1980 to now, Singapore's economy has been steaming ahead at an average growth rate of 7% per year. Last year, in 2010, the economy grew by a whopping 14.7%, making Singapore the fastest growing economy in Asia and the second fastest in the world. By all accounts we have done well. To add to our feat, Temasek Holdings ("Temasek") has been returning 17% annually  since it was established. It is estimated that Temasek together with GIC, MAS, HDB and other GLCs and Statuary Boards manage about a S$1 Trillion in funds. Our reserves are about five times the size of our GDP. So, what's there to complain?

Our public debt, on the other hand, which is mostly domestic debt is financed primarily by CPF and the local banks in Singapore. The public debt stands at about S$200B. While our public debt is considered very high in terms of public debt to GDP, it is only 20% of the national reserves and therefore, a default risk is minimal. The thing that caught my eye was that a large proportion of our public debt is financed by CPF, meaning to say, our national savings are used to power our economy. So what does that mean to CPF holders?

Fund managers do hold government bonds and securities at prudent levels because it is considered a low risk investment with very modest returns. Currently, the CPF Board gives out about 2.5% interests per year on our CPF balances. While this may be higher than the bank rates, it is much lower than the rate of economic growth and much lower than the 17% returns that Temasek is making each year. This has prompted me to compute the opportunity cost of keeping your monies in the CPF. 

Suppose if you had invested S$20,000 with Temasek in 1980, you would have made a whopping S$2.2M by now. Conversely, at the current rates of 2.5% per year, your CFP savings would have only grown to a paltry $42,000. That is a HUGE difference, I must say... be wise with your monies.